Sunday, April 27, 2008

Playoffs!

I guess this is kind of how the Scott Rolen story starts in every city, but I'm pretty much ready to put him on the level of excellence. Four for eleven with two doubles, a homer and four RBIs? Move over Garth Iorg and Danny Ainge, you've got company on the list of all-time best Jays third basemen.

Of course... if you're one of the hacks from Bugs and Cranks, evidently you think that this century's Chris Shelton, our old friend Eric Shitske, belongs up there as well.

A tip of the hat to Jon from the Mockingbird for pointing out to me (because I don't read Bugs and Cranks) that I've provoked the ire of B&C's Rays correspondent, David Chalk.

My first reaction to this was, I really don't give a fuck. My second reaction, however, was that I should probably have a beer. And then my third was that Bugs and Cranks sucks, but this guy really seems to want me to shit on his wrong opinion, so what the hell...

Chalk seems to have taken exception to the fact that, despite having watched him lick acres of bag for five years, I would have the audacity to still refer to the Jays former third-baseman as "Shitske" in the face of the overwhelming evidence of his greatness that we've witnessed in the first weeks of the season.

Uh... yeah, has this guy been taking lessons in poor logic from his colleague Kyte? I don't know about anyone else, but I'm feeling real comfortable that the career .256 hitter who OPS'd a cool .715 last year is probably not going to keep up his .292/.378/.671 tear. Just call it an inkling I've got, based on that absolute, unquestionable shittiness of Shitske.

Then again, Chalk is probably calculating the Rays' magic number right now. How else would you explain his defense of the Rays bullpen after I called them "fairly shitty"? The guy seriously fucking brought up the fact that they've got the lowest bullpen ERA in the majors!

I mean, notwithstanding the fact that ERA is kind of a shitty way to evaluate relievers who are primarily brought in to keep inherited runners from scoring, I guess I did make the mistake of noticing that, except for the reclamation project Percival, everybody down there is either hit or miss from year to year or a flat out full-time shitbag. I know it's weird that, kind of like the Shitske thing, I would actually look at a player's career performance instead of just calling him great based on three weeks, but that's just a hangup I have (unless it's Scott Rolen).

Anywho...where was I?

Oh yeah, this afternoon the Jays finally caught some breaks, and even though they still managed to shit the bed with RISP, they put some runs on the board and forced the Kansas City defense into situations where their margin for error was razor thin, and this time it was the Royals who came unraveled. Playoffs!

Worth Repeating
1) I mentioned in the comments for the previous post that Jerry Howarth had nailed the logic behind the decision to bring in the Beej Bossman (enh?) in the eighth, and that I'd repeat it for you all. Pretty simple: BJ hadn't pitched since Thursday, and Gibbons wanted to be sure he got some work in, so that he a) wouldn't be forced to use him regardless on Tuesday in Boston, and b) he wouldn't come in at a key point in the Boston series without having worked in almost a week. It's kind of a shitty message to send, but the idea was that they couldn't save him for the bottom of the ninth, in case the Jays coughed up the lead in the eighth (and when was the last time that happened?), taking the bottom of the ninth out of play.

2) Sorry to sound like a broken record, but some folks in our comments sections, and some recent callers to Wilner still can't seem to get it through their heads that Reed Johnson's hot month doesn't really mean much, or that there are such a thing as splits.

You see.. we can look at how Reed is performing against right-handed or left-handed pitchers, and the funny thing is, right now Reed is hitting .350 against RHP, which he mostly wouldn't have been doing for the Jays, because that's what the left-hitting Matt Stairs is here for. Reed has been decent (.286/.429/.320) against LHP, but for all bitching about Shannon Stewart among Jays fans, against LHP he's a staggeringly better .364/.467/.545. I will acknowledge that both have been thrown in there against RHP too much, and that Reed's unlikely success in that situation is skewing the numbers in his favour, but you seriously can't slag the Jays for dropping one right-handed platoon outfielder for another when the guy they now have is (in a very small sample size) way better in the specific situation that you want to use your right-handed platoon outfielder in (i.e. against LHP).

In other words, please fuck off Reed lovers.

3) The Red Sox have lost five in a row, including being swept by Tampa (and I love Wilner's sarcasm about them now being out of the playoff picture because "good teams don't get swept by Tampa"). Word is that the flu bug has been making the rounds in their clubhouse.

You mean, kind of like what's happened with Wells and Rios in the last week? Is anybody else ready to believe that this had more to do with the Jays recent complete awfulness than the team led on? Even if it's not, holy fuck boys, let's kick the Sox while they're down.

4) Late addition to the post, but I almost forgot to point out the Mockingbird's outstanding analysis of AJ Burnett's outing the other night, and his seemingly completely fucking insane decision to start mucking around with a cut fastball for the first time in his career somewhere around the 8th inning of a tight ballgame. Moron.

27 comments:

Jason said...

11 at-bats against lefties. Stewart has had 11 at-bats against lefties. Is it fair to judge on 11 at-bats?

Also, Reed had almost 300 at-bats against righties in 2006. Why is he only good as a platoon player? He can hit righties, he's done it before and he's doing it right now. The man can play every day.

Stoeten said...

It's absolutely not fair to judge Stewart against LHP in those 15 plate appearances. But, the point kind of exactly is that it's way too early to be judging these guys. His small-sample-size success against LHP is just an overlooked stat by people who see highlight reel catches and a high BA for Reed and think that this was an obviously blown decision by the Jays.

And yes, Reed hit everything in 2006. For a half season. And last year he was awful against RHP, and even in September, when he'd been back for a few months and should have been expected to be closer to his normal self, he was still terrible. Plus, he's now in a weaker division against pitchers who've mostly never seen him. I'm sorry but I will still take the 4 1/2 years of not being able to hit RHP over one half plus one month of being able to.

Anonymous said...

Shannon Stewart and Reed Johnson have pretty similar career numbers, both in fielding and batting. I really don't care about either player as neither one is going to win or lose a World Series for the Jays. The end.

Jon said...

Shitske. How clever!

Jon said...

This century's Chris Shelton? That doesn't make any sense. Chris Shelton is this century's Chris Shelton. Remember? He had that great start in the 2000's.

Shelton was also a rookie when this occurred, Hinske is a veteran. Pretty weak comparison. Hack!

Stoeten said...

Also, considering that, Reed was way less of a sure thing. Stewart has 11 straight years where the worst he's hit was .274, including only one year below .290 in the last nine. With splits that are about even against LHP and RHP, meaning that he's way more versatile.

But that's all stuff from when the move happened, which we don't need to go over. The big thing is that the Reed lovers seem to think that four weeks are enough to base conclusions on in a 25 week season. Uh... no.

So... I like to point out flaws in that, because if you only deal in impressions and feelings, like a lot of fans want to do, Reed looks a lot better than what the reality of the situation is. IMHO.

Stoeten said...

Jon, if you really think I didn't know Chris Shelton had his hot start this century, you're probably just going to want to quit while you're ahead*.

Also, nobody is pretending that Shitske is the cleverest nickname ever. It's just... that's his nickname. We one time unknowingly shouted it at him all game while sitting about five rows behind his parents, and after that it kinda stuck.


*I'm being nice. You're not really ahead.

Stoeten said...

Um... also, for your sake I'll pretend that Chris Shelton actually was a rookie when that happened, even though he was in his second year. Regardless, the fact that one shitty player who had a hot start and then fell to earth was a "rookie", and another shitty player having a hot start who will inevitably fall back to earth isn't... um... that doesn't really make the comparison any less apt. I may only compare Chris Shelton to Kevin Maas? Is that it? ... Well, if we're still pretending Shelton was a rookie.

Please tell me what I'm missing.

abigail breslin said...

Whats all this bickering about Shitske and Shelton for? The Jays won!!!

Also, I really liked the new lineup Gibby used, discuss that instead.

Stoeten said...

Agreed!

Eckstein is hitting second now, according to Blair. Hopefully Wells stays farther down, but I bet he'll creep up again eventually.

Blake said...

Sam Horn!

Is he in the Hall of Fame yet?

Anyways - I liked the new lineup as well, seems a little more balanced.

I think Eckstein is well suited for the number two slot, and don't mind seeing both Hill and Wells batting lower.

the ack said...

Scotty Rolen just looks fucking badass out there. Even defensively - looks like he's taking his sweet time, then guns the ball over and still beats the runner by 2 steps.

And when can we start getting on Vern for his half assed defence this year? Now, I haven't looked into stats like zone rating etc - full disclosure - but he just looks fucking terrible to the naked eye. Seems every game there's a ball dropping 2 feet in front of him, whereas years past he'd be on the turf digging those things out. He's half-assed some throws back to the infield for gift bases this season too.

Of course, everything looks like barf in a 6 game losing streak, but....is it just me on this?

Torgen said...

I love this quote from the Globe's wrap:
When asked how his surgically repaired finger was holding up, he shrugged and said: “Fine … as far as you know.”

jawn said...

I commented to Wilner yesterday that Wells is kind of floating out there on defence. I never mentioned his hitting but Wilner still kind of got all up in arms about it (like he does when he doesn't know what to say).

Ack, ya Vernon is half-ass'n it out there. It's brutal.

Anonymous said...

Hats off to the red headed step child?

And get the Hell off Vernon's back. He's fine out there

Eli Newman said...

There's something else to mention here.

Our team is almost 100 percent completely healthy now. This is the team firing on all cylinders, and I even think the Thomas release was not detrimental to the organization in a baseball sense. And you better like the team the way it is, cause I realized earlier this week after hearing JP and what not that the Jays will probably not sign Barry Bonds.

Anyway, short term future, we're gonna start playing well. Thank god we have Boston coming up. We can't handle these bottom feeders.

Anonymous said...

Wells looks terrible out in the field. No sign of a former Gold Glove winner to be seen.

Oh, and nice effort on the base steal Wells. Pause. Not.

DT said...

I always think it's pretty tricky to judge fielders just by watching them - Jim Edmonds was a perfect example of a guy who seemed to make all these spectacular plays, but actually got to way fewer balls than someone like Andruw Jones who got down and dirty far less often.

But in this case, our observations of Vernon seem spot on - from 2003 to 2007, Vernon's Zone Rating ("The percentage of balls fielded by a player in his typical defensive "zone," as measured by STATS, Inc.") ranged from a low of .905 to a high of .919 - pretty consistent. This year, he's at .815, a massive dropoff. I wonder what the deal is?

David Chalk said...

Stoeten --

I think you've misunderstood and misconstrued my post about Shitske and the Devil Rays bullpen.

Still, I've gone ahead and posted a public apology over at B&C.

http://www.bugsandcranks.com/tampa-bay-devil-rays/a-public-apology-to-stoeten-of-drunk-jays-fans/

Hope there's no hard feelings.

Stoeten said...

Oh was that sarcasm?

mike from ottawa said...

Fight! Fight! Fight!

mike from ottawa said...

"Scotty Rolen just looks fucking badass out there. Even defensively - looks like he's taking his sweet time, then guns the ball over and still beats the runner by 2 steps.

Agreed. I just feel more comfortable watching the game knowing he's at the corner and in the batting order. Again, he ain't the saviour. But it seems like his presence in the lineup gives me a nice warm feeling of adult supervision, for whatever reason.

Anonymous said...

kick his ass C bass!

the ack said...

anonymous 11:27 PM - care to comment on dt's zone rating findings? He has NOT been "fine out there"...the stats bear it out, plus he's made some careless errors and given extra bases (how did DeJesus get a double out of a liner to center yesterday?), plus, as I mentioned, he just hasn't been aggressive on his throws, at all.

Now, it's early....but can defensive play just warm up like a bat can? I don't know. I'm not trying to "get on his back"; I really like Vern as a player, and don't have a problem at all with the deal he signed - we wanted to keep him ,and we paid market (at the time) for him, maybe even a touch below. Truth be told....I just don't get this defensive decline (yes yes yes - SO FAR), is all.

Jonathan said...

If it's any consolation, last year Wells did the same thing. He spent the first half bottom of the league in RZR and then ended up middle of the pack.

But the range metrics have never really liked Vernon. Except for one season, he's always been very slightly above average.

Anonymous said...

The Rays bullpen does suck wait until July to see it unravel!Their offense is great and their starting two are up there in the AL.But to say fairly shitty is an accurate statement.Just wait to see how "fairly shitty" they will be!

As for Wells,he seems to saunter towards balls coming at him sometimes.Lack of range or lack of urgency/hustle?Definitely the latter........He is a very good player but something stops him from being a great player.With "dirtbags" like Eckstein and Rolen on the squad perhaps Wells will play to his potential.

I like the way the AL East looks right now, like some sort of Bizarro world where everything is upside down.That flubug crap for the Red Sux is an excuse.They are either up or down so far.Their bullpen is nothing to write home about either.About the Yankees,Litsch is pitching better than their NO 3 Mussina.You should hear all the Yankee homers down in NYC saying how they are getting into the World Series!!It's hysterical,now they've lost Posada.Contrary to popular belief, Posada is the real de facto captain of the Yankees not Jeter.Without him,THEY ARE SCREWED!In addition,their bullpen is not fairly shitty BUT IS REALLY SHITTY with the exception of the overrated Joba "the Bugdodger" Chamberlain and Rivera.This is the Jays year!JP still needs to call Barroid though to seal the deal..........

Anonymous said...

Our fielding is kind of stupid, if Wells continues to struggle (which he won't, obviously, because nothing ever stays as bad as we think it will). Rios can't make great plays out there only average ones, Wells seems to have aged 6 years (the surgery was in Wells' non-throwing arm, so what's the deal?), and that other fielder sucks, whatever his name is. Thank God we have a majority of ground ball pitchers and our infield defense is so solid... with... Eckstein- I mean, Johnny Mac, who can swing a... mean... bat. The answer is obviously Bonds.